According to a whitepaper from ICIS, mechanical recycling constituted 8% of demand in Europe, North America and North Asia in 2024 – but the figure is expected to double across various global regions by 2050, reaching annual recycled production volume of over 50 million tonnes.
ICIS places Europe’s mechanical recycling share at 21% for PET resin and 16% for polyester fibre. By 2050, PET resin share is expected to grow to 45%, while polyester fibre is set to grow to 22% – a ‘relatively slow’ growth attributed to the rise of rPET in line with sustainability targets, as well as roadblocks to implementing the necessary technology for fibre recycling.
Rigid HDPE and PP remained at 8% of the total demand last year. Setbacks are thought to include the long lifecycles of more durable rigid plastics; limited progress in separate waste collection; technological barriers in the recycling process and specification of resin required for end applications; and the availability of waste feedstocks.
Transport packaging is noted as a common driver for polyolefins recycled at scale – described as a ‘key feedstock’ for LDPE and LLDPE, with 10% of overall demand said to be met from recycled sources. Similarly, ICIS records high demand for natural blow-moulding HD for packaging applications, and injection-moulding grade PP for packaging and automotive applications.
As the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation enforces minimum recycled content targets, demand for rigid plastic recyclate is expected to grow ‘significantly’ in the run-up to 2050. Waste utilization could improve in line with EU targets, the whitepaper says, while improvements in sorting and processing technologies could play a part in making recycled materials more available.
Nonetheless, ICIS anticipates that mechanical recycling growth for flexible polyolefins will remain ‘relatively small’ due to technological barriers and high costs. Even as some industry players experiment with separating flexibles from municipal collection, the whitepaper argues that investments in municipal sorting infrastructure, extended producer responsibility legislation, and ‘strong’ demand for recycled material are necessary factors in driving the mechanical recycling of flexible plastics at scale.
In other global regions, North America is believed to have reached a mechanical recycling share of 11% for polyolefins. Within this, ICIS puts HDPE and PP at 13%, and LDPE and LLDPE at 8%. By 2050, HDPE and PP are projected to grow to 19%, while LDPE and LLDPE are expected to reach 11%.
According to ICIS, many polyolefin applications in North America are industrial, which complicates waste recovery for recycling. This is especially true in regions placing more emphasis on collection systems for post-consumer household waste.
Polyolefins with weaker performance properties, including flexibles, also run the risk of downgrading into lower-value recyclate; yet the rise of chemical recycling is anticipated to unlock circularity for more complex material structures.
North America’s share of mechanical recycling demand is believed to have been higher than Europe’s due to a larger proportion of plastic waste available relative to domestic pellet consumption. ICIS explains that North America imports a higher volume of finished more durable plastic goods made from PP and HDPE.
Investments in waste collection infrastructure, improvements in consumer education and participation, and developments in regulation and corporate sustainability commitments are credited for mechanically recycled PET taking a 20% share of total consumption in North America. Of this figure, 17% is attributed to PET resin and polyester film, and 24% to polyester fibres.
The latter is projected to hit 46% by 2050, while polyester fibres are set to reach 32% within the same time frame – growth largely attributed to the packaging industry. ICIS also suggests that imports will be a ‘crucial supplement’ to domestic supply in the short- to mid-term, with South America and the Asia-Pacific anticipated to be the primary sources.
Meanwhile, mechanical recycling share for polyolefins reached 4% in Northeast Asia last year. It is projected to reach 9% by 2050.
Figures are said to be lower in Northeast Asia than Europe and North America due to high exports of plastic goods, limiting the region’s access to domestic waste. Furthermore, it is said to place a greater emphasis on recycling polyester.
While polyolefin recycling is expected to grow ‘relatively fast’ in the area, ICIS indicates that the share of total demand will be restricted to 9% by 2050, even as demand for polymers increases. This is because hard-to-recycle polyolefins, including flexible packaging, are expected to be chemically recycled in the coming years; and factors like an ‘overcapacity’ to produce virgin polymers and a lack of recycled content mandates are feared to disincentivize investments into recycling infrastructure.
Conversely, the whitepaper adds that share demand for mechanically recycled polyester polymers reached 11% in 2024. Drawing from both post-consumer and post-industrial sources, the region is said to have sourced ‘millions of tonnes’ of recycled materials for applications like fibres and bottle-to-bottle PET recycling .
Still, ICIS anticipates that the share of demand for total polyester polymers will only increase to 18% by 2050 – attributing the slow growth to a lack of consumer engagement, a shortage of clear investment and strategy plans, conflicting governmental priorities between circular economy and carbon targets, and the absence of legislative and sustainability-minded demand for recycled content across the polyester chain.
For PET resin, in particular, ongoing demand for recycled content exports is set to direct resources out of the region and limit access to recyclate in the future. Consumers are also less willing to pay premium for recycled material compared to Europe and North America, the whitepaper suggests.
ICIS goes on to identify key drivers for the global mechanical recycling market. Brand owners face particular pressure from consumers and NGOs, while the industry at large is motivated by legislative measures like recycled content mandates and single-use plastics regulation; the implementation of effective waste management infrastructure; and political and economic support for recycling initiatives.
Right now, it says that more regulatory drivers are needed in the coming years, noting that demand growth for most recyclate grades is stifled by ‘limited’ legislative support. Current recyclate uptake is believed to be driven by voluntary brand commitments or the potential for cost savings.
Sorting infrastructure must also improve, ICIS says. Every region it examines is still in the early stages of separately collecting municipal waste via deposit return schemes and other collection mechanisms.
Flexible polyolefins still pose challenges, especially when it comes to the separate collection and recycling of household waste. Chemically recycled and biobased feedstocks are expected to boost their circularity.
The news comes after Plastics Recyclers Europe’s warning that the continent’s plastics recycling industry is at ‘breaking point’. Cheaper imported materials are believed to account for 20% of EU polymer consumption, plastic waste exports have reportedly increased by 36% between 2022 and 2024, and Plastics Recyclers Europe has recorded the slowest growth in plastics recycling capacity ‘in years’.
More optimistically, the Alliance to End Plastic Waste has published a playbook outlining its approach to mechanically recycling mixed plastic waste into products of value. It sought to keep the required investments and technologies at a minimum to ensure that countries with less developed recycling systems can still follow its guidance.
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